Corona Virus

the problem with all of these numbers is that no one knows how many people have actually been infected - unless every single person were tested the total number of infected can never be known and trying to figure out the percentage of people that die is impossible when you only have the numerator.

Right now there could be hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions of people world wide that have been infected that either had no symptoms or very moderate symptoms that never even knew they had it and will never be tested.

without both the numerator and the denominator you might as well be throwing darts an numbers on a dart board - - its all just guess work

Heck unless they at some point run antibody tests on every single person in the country the real mortality rate will never be known

OR we have been watching go many apocalyptic movies. It always amazes me how we humans almost always expect the worst.

Quote from SoCal

OR we have been watching go many apocalyptic movies. It always amazes me how we humans almost always expect the worst.

I try to expect the best, but I also try to be prepared for the worst - - - please note I said "try"

Quote from Doc&Ruby

You're basically correct, Bill.

Much of the data is incomplete, a lot of what we see is projections - not data.

And yes, nobody's crystal ball is very good. We won't know the whole story until well after it's all over - and probably won't even then.

SOOO!! My mathematical theory is correct — virus predictions are...

Quote from Edward Neal

the problem with all of these numbers is that no one knows how many people have actually been infected - unless every single person were tested the total number of infected can never be known and trying to figure out the percentage of people that die is impossible when you only have the numerator.

Right now there could be hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions of people world wide that have been infected that either had no symptoms or very moderate symptoms that never even knew they had it and will never be tested.

without both the numerator and the denominator you might as well be throwing darts an numbers on a dart board - - its all just guess work

Heck unless they at some point run antibody tests on every single person in the country the real mortality rate will never be known

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Right. The same as with the flu. Total deaths is fairly easy to establish. Total infections is next to impossible. I've had the flue maybe 5 times (or at least I had all the symptoms) in my life. Actually went to the dr and got diagnosed once. I'm sure the mortality rate for both the flu and Covid are probably much lower than the statics show. The question here is, is covid more dangerous than the flue as a result of having a higher mortality rate, and the data would seem to say "yes", even if we assume total infections for almost any communicable disease is really unknowable.

EDIT: Of course, all that really matters in the end is the deaths. If the number of deaths from covid exceeds the number of deaths from the flue, then the number of infections is pretty much irrelevant for determining which is a bigger threat.

Quote from SZurlo

Right. The same as with the flu. Total deaths is fairly easy to establish. Total infections is next to impossible. I've had the flue maybe 5 times (or at least I had all the symptoms) in my life. Actually went to the dr and got diagnosed once. I'm sure the mortality rate for both the flu and Covid are probably much lower than the statics show. The question here is, is covid more dangerous than the flue as a result of having a higher mortality rate, and the data would seem to say "yes", even if we assume total infections for almost any communicable disease is really unknowable.

EDIT: Of course, all that really matters in the end is the deaths. If the number of deaths from covid exceeds the number of deaths from the flue, then the number of infections is pretty much irrelevant for determining which is a bigger threat.

I think it goes beyond just the mortality rate - even if it is as low or lower than the flu that could easily be offset if it is more contagious than the flu and more people get it

then on top of that are treatment options - being a new virus the options that are available to reduce mortality once a person is infected are probably much lower (and at this time in limited supply) than they would be for a known strain of the flu thus increasing the mortality rate.

way too many unknowns at this time to be 100% sure of anything

I love this guy....no nonsense.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sho…ine-leader-034000647.html

love the way he dealt with drug dealers too,....

Wow!!! The engineer of this train reminds me of Bigdog

Engineer convinced hospital ships reason for coming to LA is part of a conspiracy for "Covid 19 takeover" intentionally crashes train

As BigDog like to say - "Everything is a conspiracy"

Quote from Edward Neal

Wow!!! The engineer of this train reminds me of Bigdog

Engineer convinced hospital ships reason for coming to LA is part of a conspiracy for "Covid 19 takeover" intentionally crashes train

As BigDog like to say - "Everything is a conspiracy"

there may be some hope for you yet....you’re staring to get it.....

And by the way.....that engineer is my uncle... 🤷‍♂️

You tell two friends and they will each tell two friends and so on and so on -----

"As of Thursday afternoon, over 1,002,500 cases were recorded worldwide of COVID-19, with over 51,300 deaths.

It took a little over 4 months -- 130 days -- for cases globally to surpass 500,000. It took only seven days to add the next 500,000 to the count."

who wants to take bets on how many there will be in 7 more days? or a month?

Dang thing is getting scary - every morning when I get up I make a cup of coffee and then get on my computer to check the news - - - lately I have almost been afraid to look - - between new cases and the stock market - - - - - - - -

stay home and social distancing...

forCe yourself Not to see your friends and family ...Stay home for 30 days or possibly neveR See them again..

The mayor's of LA and NYC are telling everybody to wear a mask or face covering while in public. But leave the medical grade masks for health care workers.

Quote from Edward Neal

Wow!!! The engineer of this train reminds me of Bigdog

Engineer convinced hospital ships reason for coming to LA is part of a conspiracy for "Covid 19 takeover" intentionally crashes train

As BigDog like to say - "Everything is a conspiracy"

Wow, what if it were loaded with passengers? Did anyone anticipate this erratic behavior? If so why were they afraid to step up and protect? So much lost. The potential for much more lose was there. Tragic.

Quote from Doc&Ruby

That might be a little warm for LA.

I picked up my survival kit today. We all have to wear mask or something to cover mouth and nose if entering a public building. We are in seclusion for another month. So I have TP and now this

Think I can make it ok , my wife, Norma doesn’t like bourbon, so all for me!

Just Sayin

Quote from Frankie55

Wow, what if it were loaded with passengers? Did anyone anticipate this erratic behavior? If so why were they afraid to step up and protect? So much lost. The potential for much more lose was there. Tragic.

according to the article....seeing the ship ...he snapped thinking it was there for something other than helping sick people....troubling is the fact that his job is critical to move people and or supplies. Operating suck a powerful machine comes with HugE Responsibility and mental health is critical. Supposedly he did this on his own with no preplanning...still remains to be seen.....

Many people are mentally weak, smokers, drinkers, druggies, gamblers other risk taking activities....taking this into account many people can’t handle real life....the reason for constantly getting high or drunk....it’s an escape from reality ..

The same people that are content to be entertained by the kardashions and sports like it’s life and death...

so expecting everyone to accept this New reality and react accordingly ....many are going to have a problem. Wait until the UFOs land...LOL

that said I’ve been in financial distress during lay offs and strikes....I saw many divorces during these times....women hate being poor...

this isn’t just one company on strike or lay-off this is an entire country on shut down....9/11 was just a pimple compared to this....closet thing in my generation...that changed the country.....this is rearranging the country....lots of normal things have become abnormal....we’re going to exit This into a new normal...The next 30 days is going to be A real eye opener for people with mental problems...it’s going to be hard on normal people...

Boomer have you been able to get out and ride a little?

Quote from Bigdog

according to the article....seeing the ship ...he snapped thinking it was there for something other than helping sick people....troubling is the fact that his job is critical to move people and or supplies. Operating suck a powerful machine comes with HugE Responsibility and mental health is critical. Supposedly he did this on his own with no preplanning...still remains to be seen.....

Many people are mentally weak, smokers, drinkers, druggies, gamblers other risk taking activities....taking this into account many people can’t handle real life....the reason for constantly getting high or drunk....it’s an escape from reality ..

The same people that are content to be entertained by the kardashions and sports like it’s life and death...

so expecting everyone to accept this New reality and react accordingly ....many are going to have a problem. Wait until the UFOs land...LOL

that said I’ve been in financial distress during lay offs and strikes....I saw many divorces during these times....women hate being poor...

this isn’t just one company on strike or lay-off this is an entire country on shut down....9/11 was just a pimple compared to this....closet thing in my generation...that changed the country.....this is rearranging the country....lots of normal things have become abnormal....we’re going to exit This into a new normal...The next 30 days is going to be A real eye opener for people with mental problems...it’s going to be hard on normal people...

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Time will tell and it will be a short time. I think the older generations have been hardened with the ability to focus on a direction to achieve an outcome. In the computer age its different.